Just so we are clear, this is not a fantasy ballot, just my predictions. That one day in October where we will be looking through the list of what the NomCom has blended together. As for me, I always get a quick glance at it, but then I usually analyze their picks and question why they chose a certain group/artist. This is indeed the best time of the year for Rock Hall watchers, as we all post our picks, or what we predict the Nominating Committee will pick. I believe what makes it fun is the fact that no one has ever got the ballot 100% right at all, and no one probably ever will. There may be something up the NomCom's sleeves that we don't know about. Will Tom Morello put another heavy band in? Will Stevie Van Zandt push for one of his favorite 60's groups? Stuff like that. Who was gotten more attention in the last few months? Who is touring, still putting out albums? Who has been the subject of films? Who will be the ultimate left-field pick (or "WTF pick") for the year? These are the questions that are on everyone's minds every year as we pick on who will likely be selected to go on the Nominations ballot.
More importantly, will something change, like the NomCom going a different direction? Will there be more women than previous years? Will ?uestlove keep putting Chaka Khan on the ballot, or some other deserving artist? Unfortunately, I think some will stay the same. Another question is, how many acts that were never before nominated will show up on the ballot? As for me, I think this year's ballot will have more than ever, with 8. The nominations list grows, then shrinks, unpredictably every year. For numerous reasons, I'm picking 16 acts for my predictions list.
Here we go:
-Newly eligible-
Weezer - As we all know, last year there were no newly-eligible artists/groups on the ballot. There are a few candidates from 1994 that have shown up on RHW's lists (Biggie, Sheryl Crow, Daft Punk), but for me I just think it will be the band that has been fronted by Rivers Cuomo all these years. Not just a regular band, but one that has been on my radar for a while. They have a resume, that would make them an easy first-year placement on the ballot. Then again, I said the same about Beck a year ago. But rock mags (like Rolling Stone) have considered the 1996 Pinkerton album a cult classic; one that has inspired several emo/pop-punk groups. Weezer has kept pace over the years, putting out several albums, including two this year. I also think they pulled off quite a comeback in 2001, after seemingly, everyone, believed they were a has-been group. Weezer has toured over the years, gave the term "nerd rock" a new meaning, and made memorable music videos (that's assuming people still watch them!). It would be a great tribute to the late Ric Ocasek as well, since he produced three of Weezer's albums. (I doubt it will be on many of the NomCom members minds though...) So much more I can say.
That being said, I don't think they will get in on first try. I hope they do, but I just don't see it happening right away. Obviously, for the reasons stated above, I definitely see them getting nominated soon enough.
-Nominated before-
Nine Inch Nails
Devo
-Because of the 2020 Induction Ceremony being in Cleveland, it would be perfect in every way to get these two at least on the ballot...and, possibly enshrined. Of course, that would be weird (if you ask me) if both got inducted at the same time, like if it was rigged or something. But you know the old saying, "things happen for a reason" or "there are no coincidences". New wave/alternative acts Depeche Mode, The Cure and the Smiths have been nominated twice, so something tells me that Devo will be among the next in this group. NIN have also been nominated twice, even though they came later than those groups. Both acts have been active in music for a long time. And as everyone is pointing out, Reznor has been given songwriting credit on, what looks to be the biggest hit of 2019: "Old Town Road". I'm sure last year's inductees will play a great part in getting those two in eventually. Same goes for the next act on my list:
Depeche Mode - No need to explain, as I'm just gonna be repeating what everyone else has said, so...moving on...
The Smiths - Actually I was going to put the Eurythmics in this slot, but I sensed something else. Though its very impossible that all four members of the Smiths will show up to the ceremony, it would make the Rock Hall look good if these guys get in, no matter what.
Rufus/Chaka Khan - It's one or the other, until they get inducted. I hope they skip a year on putting them on the ballot, but for reason I don't see it happening. (I really hope this happens soon because we need more from this genre - as well as the era, especially the ladies!)
The Meters
Kraftwerk - We don't know how many tries it will take for this innovative group to get in. It's very hard to think like this: "Black Sabbath got nominated ten times, so chill...". In this case, I can't if a lot of acts that were influenced by Kraftwerk get in before them. But that can be a great thing too, because with Thom Yorke's or Martin Gore's support or whoever...
-Never been Nominated-
Motley Crue - Like them or not, they are destined to be the next hard-rock act to be enshrined. Last year, just about everyone correctly predicted Def Leppard; needless to say, I don't see it being any different. Although for some reason, I don't see Tom Morello throwing out their name (he's usually the guy who champions that genre...). No matter. Motley Crue has been #1 on the fan kiosk at the Rock Hall museum for several months now. A lot of people won't forget how they redefined glam/hard rock, and their negative side (all four members of the classic lineup have been arrested and committed crimes, at separate times). Of course, one of the biggest documentaries to come out this year was their biographical film, The Dirt, which will probably influence the NomCom's decision. If the Crue are put on the ballot, they will easily get the #1 fan vote. Though their legal documents say they are not allowed to perform together in public, their possible Rock Hall Induction is an exception...from what I've read.
The Go-Go's - Another group getting the documentary treatment is the Go-Go's. And not just any other group, as they rightfully call themselves the "most successful all-female group of all-time". The ladies are also known for playing their own instruments and writing their own songs - and more importantly, helped define the new-wave genre and their association with 80s pop culture and MTV. They have been together on and off through the years, and they would all very likely show up for an induction ceremony, whenever that will be.
The Doobie Brothers - Just like everyone else has been saying, the whole Irving Azoff thing. No need to repeat that. Plus its another to fill the classic rock void. But what really got me thinking about the Doobies was earlier this year, them touring with Santana. To me, that was a step-up. Usually touring with a legendary act sometimes draws attention. By the way, I attended those concerts back in July and they were great. A lot of dad-rock fans will be happy to see them at the ceremony, and Michael McDonald would very likely attend.
Pat Benatar - It's gonna be tough to predict if there will be more women on the ballot in the coming years, but I sorta think the NomCom will finally listen to the complaints about the shortage of women in the Rock Hall. If we're gonna keep on the same track with radio-friendly classic-rock artists, then Benatar would surely stand out as the next true candidate. If she gets on the ballot and has not much competition, she could be the first female #1 fan vote getter.
Beck - Something tells me that his name will appear on the ballot, after what didn't happen last year. I don't know who would suggest him, but let's hope he'll make the board. And no, I don't expect for him to get in on the first try.
Tommy James and the Shondells - When I compiled my "Snubs" list recently, I spent a lot of time looking into James' recent work and social media page. There was a lot I wasn't aware of, like how busy James is these days. He's playing music, touring and he's on Sirius XM. He put out an album recently, and guess who appeared on it? You got it, Stevie Van Zandt. I don't see why Van Zandt wouldn't use his influence for putting James on the ballot. The first time he would appear on a ballot would be the only time, as several would likely vote for him.
Peter Frampton - This will be my main left-field pick, or to some the "WTF" one. Comes to mind because he's doing his retirement tour this year due to health problems. So why not get him in now? Frampton would probably get in the Hall right away if he appeared on the ballot, because of his longtime presence in the music world and his work with several big-names. I am aware he's had limited success after his mega double-live album. He's also an actor at times (ironically, he appeared in my least-favorite and my most-favorite movies of all-time, Sgt. Peppers and Almost Famous, respectively.). It's a shot in the dark, but you never know.
Sonic Youth - For the last slot, it was between Sonic Youth, the Pixies and Jane's Addiction. I really don't like to compare bands, especially those three - but, they were all influential pre-grunge acts that had impact from 1985-1991. Putting the Pixies and Weezer on the same ballot would not be right, since they toured together this year. Jane's Addiction? My gut isn't telling me it's their year. So now we have Sonic Youth, which has been long overdue for a nomination. ?uestlove did say five years ago he would "fight for Sonic Youth", but it is still not known if he will keep his word.
As Casey Kasem would have probably put it, "And there you have it, the 16 acts that would likely be put on the 2020 Nominations list!"
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For the second part of this post, I'm gonna explain why I left off certain acts off my list:
The Notorious B.I.G.- It's very easy to compare him to 2Pac, but I just think 2Pac has had more influence and impact on rap/hip-hop culture then a lot, including Biggie Smalls. Both were shot and killed, in their mid-20s, in a 9-month period. Both died at the height of their popularity. Both had posthumous #1 singles and albums, and released plenty of music after their deaths until there was a time for someone to break away from the vaults. Both represented their side in the so-called hip-hop "East/West Coast" wars. Both had successful movies (well, to a certain level) made about their lives. 2Pac acted in movies; Biggie acted in an episode of "Martin". Pac has sold 75 million records so far, Biggie is at 17 million. We could go on for awhile just debating on who was better than whom. It's almost like comparing Lincoln to Kennedy.
When I visited the actual Rock Hall museum a year ago, I saw plenty of hip-hop memorabilia, including actual 45 RPM records owned by Biggie Smalls (I think they were donated by a family member?), so maybe that's a sure sign he could get in right away. Or as I type this, I see there is a short documentary thing on Amazon coming real soon, and some new online articles about him. I do think B.I.G. will get in, but not nominated right away.
Todd Rundgren - Like everyone else said, Rundgren was the most surprising that didn't get inducted last year on first try. His comments will probably sit him out for a year; hell, who knows.
Oasis - Maybe, I don't really wanna know...Oasis was one of those British alternative-rock groups
from the 90's that temporarily replaced grunge. As most of us know, they were a bigger sensation in the UK, and while Americans dug their music for a short time (I'm sensing that "Wonderwall", obviously a George Harrison ripoff song, is becoming a classic tune for my millennial generation...) they were nobodies again by the end of the millennium. Those who read the rock press knew the Gallagher brothers were @$$holes, or at least that kind of image. What's the Story, Morning Glory? and Definitely Maybe have been hailed as memorable albums of the 90s. Let's be honest here, it'll take longer than one would think to get Oasis in the Rock Hall. Maybe a nomination will pop up in the next few years, but for me they will be automatically getting in line with the other snubbed alternative-rock bands.
Daft Punk - This group has been on fire for many years now, and I always believed Daft Punk's career paralleled itself to the genre that they tried to re-define: disco. Started out as underground, or indie - and then at a certain point, all mainstream. Not bad for a French duo. It would be silly to put this electronic act in before or at the same time as Kraftwerk. Well, same goes for all the other electronica groups, but yeah...I could be proven wrong in the next two years.
Eddie Money - (probably the only time you'll ever see his name lined up with Daft Punk's) It's not so often that a famous rocker dies before the meeting of the Nomination Committee. Let's all be real - his chances of getting in the Rock Hall are about the same as Loverboy's. Yeah, he's got plenty of radio hits, just not a RH-worthy career. Unless of course he's suddenly #1 on the kiosks...
More Black/A-A artists - I really wanted to put Lionel Richie/Commodores, Kool and the Gang and the Clovers on here - but as from a realistical standpoint, it's probably not happening. It has been four years since the Spinners last appeared on a ballot, and five since War and the Marvelettes could have been inducted. Very little wonder why all the Rock Hall watchers are like, "Why stop there...". Of course, I can't speak for all of them, but I know they all probably want answers on why there hasn't been that many R&B/funk/soul acts inducted in the last decade. Then you have rappers such as LL Cool J, who has made a few trips onto the ballot but seemingly, the voters aren't interested. That or he has had strong competition. Even a Kennedy Center Honor hasn't helped Mr. Smith. Will it be another year of seeing the Meters and Rufus/Chaka Khan on the Nominations list? Or would it be great logic to put critically-acclaimed hip-hop acts De La Soul or ATCQ? Didn't want to do it, but I went with the former. But yeah, I would be a happy man all the way if Kool and the Gang and The Spinners would make the ballot again, and of course, get inducted right away.
More women - I feel like it's deja vu every year that someone says "the Rock Hall has listened to the complaints of the public, voters, etc...so they are open to putting more women in...". I'll put it to everyone this way: I'll know it when I see it. So far we have yet to see more ladies on the ballot. As of now, I just don't see it happening. I would love to see a ballot that has Tina Turner, Carly Simon, Kate Bush, the Bangles, or in other words - more than the usual we see on there.
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Alright, now for the hard part: If this ballot were the real thing, who would get inducted into the Rock Hall? Well, let's say there were 7 inductees like last year. Let's hope they enshrine more acts. (I'll save the rest for my induction predictions post...). So who would likely get in from this ballot? Here's what I would say: Motley Crue, Pat Benatar, Kraftwerk, Depeche Mode, Nine Inch Nails, The Doobie Brothers and Tommy James/Shondells. It would be HBO's ultimate dream of a Rock Hall special. Probably no drama, just people coming together. Wouldn't that make a kick-ass class? Let's pretend that it actually happened in Spring 2020. All acts would attend the ceremony. All would perform at the ceremony...okay, maybe not Kraftwerk. But all would take the stage...at least the surviving members of some of the groups inducted. They would all have their brief induction speeches. Benatar would yell "more women please!". Motley Crue would perform in public for the first time since 12/31/2015. Trent Reznor would pay tribute to his city. Michael McDonald would probably sit out during his old band's set. I know, I'm getting way ahead of myself here. A lot of these acts probably won't even turn up on the ballot. As the old saying goes - "I can dream, can I?"
I have seen a lot of interesting lists from some of the Rock Hall watchers. Some of them you'll find in the links on the side. I'd love to see your picks in the comments ------
