I thought it would be best to explain how the whole prediction thing works. Here goes, in my own words:
THE NOMINATIONS:
The Nominees for the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame are typically announced in the Fall. In the last three years, they have been announced on the 2nd or 3rd week of October. It used to be earlier, like in September. (One year, they were announced on my birthday, September 22nd) A committee (I refer to it as the NomCom, as do some others) gets together usually every September and put their heads together on who belongs on the ballot. The ballot has had several names since its inception in the mid-80s, and there are a number of acts that have not yet been inducted into the Hall. The number of nominees on the ballot has changed numerous times over the years. The last two years have had 18/19. Five or six would go on to be inducted in those last two years, either through the most votes or through what Rock Hall watchers would call a "backdoor induction" (see below for more on that). The NomCom has had an average 30 members. The number would change year by year, as longtime members have been replaced by new ones. These people would include a diverse range of personalities and experts, including Tom Morello, ?uestlove, Steven Van Sandt, and many others. Jon Landau, has been the lone chairman since 2006 and has served as a NomCom member since 1988. In all honesty, I don't have very much knowledge of each member compared to my Rock Hall watcher peers.
The end of the summer is usually a downer time for me, but the one thing I do love about it is this: picking the nominees. It's basically like, what acts are going to be on the nominations ballot.
Rock Hall watchers usually go by these impressions of what it may take to get on the ballot:
1) For first-time eligibles, how many will they put on the ballot? And who is the most iconic or most likely to be a first-time inductee, if any? In past years, it would always be obvious to me and the Rock Hall watchers that acts like Nirvana and Pearl Jam would get inducted right away, in which they did. Nowadays, each year seems to be a challenge trying to compare legends with the big newcomers.
2) Who on the NomCom would likely pick whom? Is Tom Morello still pulling for Judas Priest? Would Little Stevie try to get his favorite forgotten 60's act, or just a random group like the J. Geils Band? Who is the newest member and what are they pushing for? You get the idea.
3) Who has gotten a lot of attention lately this year? Who had a recent movie made about them? Who put out another album or song? Who is doing a big tour? Who have the NomCom members shed light on throughout the year? Who's name just keeps getting thrown around randomly?
4) Who recently passed? The death fairy sometimes has an effect on the ballot. The key word: sometimes. Donna Summer and Lou Reed (solo) were nominated while they were alive, but after their deaths they were put back on the ballot and eventually inducted the next year. Then you have classic artists like Joe Cocker and Lesley Gore, who died in recent years but were not put on the ballot after their passings. The most shocking one to most (if not all) of the Rock Hall watchers was Soundgarden back in 2017. Lead singer Chris Cornell died early that year, but they did not get a nomination. However, at the 2018 Induction Ceremony, a tribute was paid to Cornell. To some, this was a foreshadow to what may come this year as far as nomination.
5) Depending on what happened earlier that year at the Induction Ceremony, which non-inducted artist that performed will likely show up on the ballot? Who was mentioned in induction speeches? And so on...
6) How crappy or memorable was the Induction Ceremony earlier this year? Who will they put on to improve it?
THE INDUCTIONS:
Right after the nominees are announced, a lot of users on the FRL site usually have their "first-look" insight and their early thoughts. Some shake their heads, some scratch them, and some smile in excitement. Then questions arise. Is the ballot boring, or predictable? Or are there a lot of worthy acts that will surely make it very competitive? These types of discussions come along. Some people make their early predictions of who will eventually get inducted. As for me, it takes about a week for it to sink in! In the past, the inductees would not be announced until early of next year right before the Spring induction ceremony. But in the last few years, the inductees would be announced usually the week before the holidays in December. I trust that's the way it will be for a while. When you think about it, it's surely a short gap (about two months) to get our real predictions locked in. Either way, its exciting. I usually don't put my finalized predictions in until Thanksgiving or late November. It's always a drag narrowing the inductees down to five or six, but that's just the way it is.
In recent years, there have been trends about how the voters will vote. Many who were believed to be 'blackballed' would show up on the ballot and after their first try, they would get inducted. Then you also have the acts that have been on the ballot for years. Sometimes I would hope it would be a "Heinz 57" catch-up year to induct those who have been thrown around the Nominations ballot for awhile. That would be nice, right? ha. Last year, we saw Nina Simone, Dire Straits and the Moody Blues get in on first try - after having to wait several years, if not decades to make the ballot. Then in some ways, it can be unpredictable - as I'm referring to the whole Radiohead thing. See, Radiohead was expected to get in on first year of eligibility, but for reasons still unknown they did not. Yes I am aware people have their own theories behind this one....
After the inductees are announced, now we (the Rock Hall watchers) kind of play around on predicting who will get to induct whom. And then, on with the ceremony! Who will do what? What was the most memorable thing?
And then we live our lives for a few months....
THE BACKDOOR INDUCTION:
I think it was the guy who runs Future Rock Legends that coined this term first - but what it means is that if an artist was on the nominations ballot and gets inducted another way. That artist would be put in another category, outside the "Performers" one. (Remember, it's not just about the performers every year...) Some examples: Chic had been nominated 11 times for several years off-and-on, but it wasn't until 2016 that the disco group's co-founder/lead guitarist, Nile Rodgers, would get inducted in the "Musical Excellence' category. While Rodgers has had a long successful career outside Chic, many Rock Hall watchers felt it was a 'slap in the face' to the other Chic members. (Chic has not (yet) appeared on the ballot since, and it may not be likely they will) Last year (2017), Sister Rosetta Tharpe was on the ballot and most of us knew right away they (as in the Rock Hall) would sneak her out the back door - which is exactly what happened. Tharpe would be inducted, rightfully, as an Early Influence since her peak was in the 1940s, which of course was before the rock era. And now we have the "Singles" category, which was introduced at the 2018 Induction Ceremony by Stevie Van Sandt. Selected artists who have not been inducted (yet) now have a category of their own, based on the strength of their one hit single. There are plenty of questions not answered yet about it, but I think it is safe to assume this will be an annual thing. As Stevie pointed out, "[this] is not to say these artists will never be in the Rock Hall." Only time will tell if that will happen.
For a better criticism of "backdoor inductions," I highly recommend this article from FRL.
OTHER INDUCTED CATEGORIES:
Again, remember...it'is not just about the performers here. Every year (or most years I should say), there are categories for "Early Influence", "Non-Performer" (now called the Ahmet Ertegun Award), "Sidemen", "Lifetime Achievement" and "Musical Excellence". Some of these have not been used for years, most notably the "Sidemen", which hasn't inducted anyone in that category since 2009. We usually don't find out who makes it in the side categories until the Inductees get announced. Voters do not pick who goes in them. I'm not sure about the man or the group behind the curtain that picks who gets in these categories.
Like the "Performers" category, there is a huge backlog of people waiting to be inducted in these categories. I plan to write a post about it in the future.
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